Launch services, the Starlink broadband constellation, and Starship heavy-lift development. Listed 12 June 2026; ~22,000 employees; CEO Elon Musk.
Eight weeks after listing the shares are 42.9% off the IPO-week high and 19.9% below the first close — a washout that has not touched the business. Starlink density and reusable Falcon economics are already visible in a Q2 step-change to $7.81B of revenue; Starship is the option that turns a launch contractor into a platform. We are bullish on that asymmetry and 28.8% below the Street on price.
Three products share one factory system. Launch sells seats and kilograms on Falcon and, eventually, Starship. Starlink sells recurring broadband from a LEO constellation the company builds and flies itself. Starship is still an R&D line — and the option that collapses launch cost enough to densify Starlink and open lunar and Mars contracts.
It is the opposite of fabless. Capex was 111% of FY25 revenue and Q2 alone spent $28.5B — 364% of that quarter’s sales — on vehicles, satellites and ground. Gross margin can look software-like at 55% while free cash flow stays deeply negative. That is the model, not a temporary glitch.
Q2–Q4 FY25 sit inside the S-1 annual only. The public series starts at Q1 FY25, then jumps to Q1–Q2 FY26 — not a continuous run-rate, and the caption on the chart says so.
Revenue has compounded at roughly a third a year for two fiscal years and Q2 jumped another 66.5% sequentially. Cash has not followed: H1 free cash flow was −$34.1B against $12.5B of sales. Growth is not the open question. Whether the factory ever funds itself is.
| FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | What it says | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.4 | 14.0 | 18.7 | Near-doubled in two years, off a real base |
| Revenue growth | — | +34.9% | +33.2% | Steady mid-30s — not a one-year spike |
| Gross margin | 41.2% | 42.9% | 49.4% | Rising with Starlink mix and Falcon cadence |
| Operating margin | −33.7% | 3.3% | −13.9% | FY24 blip; R&D and Starship pulled it back |
| Free cash flow | 0.1 | −5.4 | −14.0 | Capex has outrun OCF every year since FY23 |
The burn is the growth programme. Capex was 111% of FY25 revenue and 364% of Q2 sales. Gross margin at 55% in the latest quarter says the unit economics work; free cash flow at −$34.1B in a half-year says the build-out is still writing the cheques. Both can be true until Starship cadence or Starlink ARPU changes the equation.
Against a curated set of launch, satcom and defence primes, SpaceX is the growth outlier and the valuation outlier. It ranks near the top on revenue growth and gross margin, near the bottom on operating margin and return on capital, and trades at a sales multiple that only works if Starlink and Starship deliver the FY28 path.
| Company | Market cap | Rev growth | Gross margin | Op margin | ROIC | EV / Sales | EV / EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX SPCX | $965B | +33.2% | 49.4% | -13.9% | -3.6% | 48.4× | 210.8× |
| Boeing BA | $183B | +34.5% | 4.7% | -5.4% | -7.7% | 2.4× | 31.9× |
| Lockheed Martin LMT | $134B | +5.7% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 20.1% | 2.0× | 15.3× |
| Northrop Grumman NOC | $80B | +2.2% | 20.1% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 2.2× | 13.3× |
| Rocket Lab RKLB | $48B | +38.0% | 36.6% | -33.2% | -8.1% | 68.4× | n/m |
| AST SpaceMobile ASTS | $29B | +1505.2% | -27.0% | -440.5% | -6.4% | 341.2× | n/m |
| Viasat VSAT | $11B | +2.7% | 30.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 3.5× | 8.3× |
| Iridium IRDM | $5B | +4.9% | 70.4% | 23.8% | 6.4% | 7.8× | 16.2× |
| Peer median excl. SPCX | $48B | +5.7% | 20.1% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 3.5× | 15.3× |
Cheapness ranks are low because there are almost no earnings to multiply. The growth and gross-margin ranks are the operating story; the multiple is the bet on FY28.
Defence primes grow mid-single digits at 2× sales; Rocket Lab grows like SpaceX at 68×. SpaceX sits between them on growth and far above the primes on price. The scatter does not explain the multiple — Starship optionality and Starlink recurrence do, or do not.
No five-year multiple history, no positive earnings, and eight weeks of trading. Valuation collapses to one question: what sales multiple the market will pay on FY28 revenue if the build-out lands. Everything else is a bridge to that number.
At Street FY28 the stock already prices a mid-single-digit sales multiple. At our $100B base it needs the market to pay 12× — the page-6 exit — for $150 to clear. Reject both paths and 48.4× trailing sales has nowhere to hide.
Street targets have held near $210 while the shares lost 43% from the June high — the revision signal is the gap, not a cut. Our $150 sits 28.8% below that mean.
Every assumption behind the three targets on page one is on this page. Change FY28 revenue or the exit sales multiple and the number moves — that is the point. There are no earnings to multiply yet, so the grid is built on sales.
| Driver | Bear | Base | Bull | Why it moves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY28E revenue | $58B | $100B | $150B | Street mean $144.7B |
| FY28E operating margin | 2.0% | 14.0% | 22.0% | Starlink mix + Starship cadence |
| Exit EV / Sales | 7.0× | 12.0× | 15.0× | Trailing is 48.4× today |
| Share count, B | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | SBC dilution vs today’s 7.49B |
| Net debt / (cash) | $0 | $0 | $0 | Cash burned into the build |
| 12-month target | $48 | $150 | $292 | −62.7% / +16.4% / +126.6% |
| FY28E revenue | 7× | 9× | 12× | 15× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $58B | $52 | $67 | $89 | $112 | $134 |
| $78B | $70 | $90 | $120 | $150 | $180 |
| $100B | $90 | $115 | $154 | $192 | $231 |
| $122B | $109 | $141 | $188 | $235 | $282 |
| $150B | $135 | $173 | $231 | $288 | $346 |
The weighted value lands ~6.7% above the headline base, so the bull tail is doing real work. That is intentional: the bear costs 63% and the bull pays 127%. The asymmetry, not the point estimate, is the reason for a bullish rating.
Seven events over the next fourteen months, each scored for how much of the thesis it settles. The two heaviest dates are a Starship demonstration SpaceX controls, and a lock-up expiry it does not.
Free float is 4.9% today. When the 180-day lock-up lifts, sellable supply can multiply overnight — before Starship settles the bull case.
| Float after 9 Dec | Reads as | Target |
|---|---|---|
| Staged / secondary agreed | Supply managed; IPO washout can finish | $150+ |
| Float doubles, orderly | Absorption risk, base case intact | $150 |
| Unrestricted flood | Mechanical selling dominates the tape | $48 |
Six risks ranked by what they would cost rather than how likely they are, each with the observable that tells you it is happening. A risk you cannot monitor is not a risk, it is an anxiety.
Musk’s line is the sum after pre-IPO class conversions settled on 15 June. There is no meaningful open-market insider tape yet — the company has been public for eight weeks — so Form 4 flow is not charted.
The ownership fact that matters is supply, not sentiment. 95.1% of the share count is still locked or tightly held. December decides whether the IPO washout finishes or restarts. Analyst ratings (27 / 6 / 2) have not moved with the −43% drawdown from the high; Street targets near $211 are the lagging indicator.
Nothing in the ownership file contradicts the bullish case. The lock-up calendar can still break it.
Each case sets FY28E revenue and an exit EV/Sales multiple, holds net debt at zero and divides by 7.8B shares. Probabilities are subjective; the headline is the base case at $150.
Prices, consensus estimates, analyst targets and Form 4 holdings from Financial Modeling Prep; fundamentals from SpaceX SEC filings. Peer set on page 4. Data as of 7 August 2026.
Generated automatically from structured data. Eight weeks of trading, three filed quarters and no segment breakout. It cannot verify Starlink ARPU, interview management, or price an event it was never told about.
Every figure above comes from primary filings and live market data, assembled and written up automatically. Ticker Alpha is building this for any listed company — so the research you need on a Tuesday afternoon takes a minute, not a week.